[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Sep 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Sep 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. A solar filament, centered near N44E53, lifted off at around 23/1200 UTC as viewed in SDO/AIA 171 and GONG imagery. However, the bulk of the plasma appeared to have been reabsorbed. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 24-26 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period with a peak flux of 8,045 pfu observed at 23/1620 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels throughout the forecast period (24-26 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence from a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. Winds speeds averaged about 450 km/s, total field ranged between 1-10 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-5 nT. Orientation of the phi angle was in a steady negative sector through about 23/2330 UTC becoming variable thereafter.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced through days one and two (24-25 Sep) under the influence of a weak negative polarity CH HSS. A return to mostly nominal conditions is expected by day three (26 Sep).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active intervals, for the remainder of day one (24 Sep). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 25-26 Sep. This is due to the influences of multiple, weak negative polarity CH HSSs.

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