[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Oct 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Oct 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in avialable coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 07-09 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 07 Oct with high levels likely on 08-09 Oct due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested the onset of influence from the positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was near or below 5 nT until after 07/0945 UTC, when an increase to a peak of 18 nT was observed. Bz reached a maximum negative value of -12 nT at 07/1055 UTC. Solar wind speeds remained relatively low, ranging from around 340-395 km/s. Phi transitioned from predominantly negative into the positive sector after 07/0952 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to persist at enhanced levels through 09 Oct due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Recurrent solar wind data suggest speeds approaching 600 km/s are likely with this event.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to increase to G1-G2 (Minor - Moderate) levels in response to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. G1-G2 conditions are likely to continue into 08 Oct. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 09 Oct as CH HSS influence persists.

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