[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Oct 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Oct 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with a spotless visible disk. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 09-11 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 10,700 pfu at 08/1850 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 09-11 Oct in response to effects associated with CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was indicative of continued CH HSS influences. Solar wind speed ranged from primarily 525-575 km/s, with a peak speed near 631 km/s at 09/0941 UTC. Total IMF strength began the period near 8 nT before decreasing to average near 5 nT for the remainder of the period. The Bz component underwent prolonged periods of weak southward deflection the first half of the UTC-day before becoming variable between +/-5 nT. The phi angle was positive most of the period, with isolated oscillations between sectors throughout the day.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is anticipated to remain enhanced on 09 Oct as the isolated, positive polarity CH HSS continues to influence Earth. Solar wind speed is expected to decline on 10-11 Oct as the CH HSS rotates away from a fully geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with a couple of isolated active periods under persistent CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 09-10 Oct as CH HSS influences persist. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 11 Oct under the weakening solar wind environment.

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