[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Oct 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Oct 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2724 (S07E19) decayed to plage and Region 2725 (S10E39, Axx/alpha) was stable throughout the period. Two filament eruptions were observed this period (S07E30 (~7 degrees) at around 15/0000 UTC and S14E32 (~16 degrees) at around 15/0300 UTC), but the associated CMEs are not expected to be Earth-directed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 15-17 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels this period and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels late on 15 Oct with predominately high levels expected on 16-17 Oct.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the continued, but weakening influence of a negative polarity CH HSS this period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 15 Oct as CH HSS influence wanes. A nominal solar wind enviroment is expected to prevail on 16-17 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled this period under waning CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 15 Oct under continued, but weakening CH HSS influence. Generally quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 16-17 Oct with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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