[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Nov 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Nov 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 10-12 Nov.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,750 pfu observed at 09/1825 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to to be at normal to moderate levels on 10 Nov due to electron redistribution from CIR/CH HSS effects. Moderate to high levels are expected on 11-12 Nov as HSS influence persists. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field increased to a maximum of 14 nT at 10/0005 UTC while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -10 nT at 10/0814 UTC. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 380 km/s early in the period to near 585 km/s by the end. Phi angle was oriented in a negative (towards) solar sector.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on 10-12 Nov due to CH HSS effects.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 10-12 Nov with G1 (Minor) storm levels likely on 10 Nov due to persistent CH HSS effects.

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