[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2018 Nov 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2018 Nov 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued to be very low and the solar disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels days one through three (29 Nov - 01 Dec).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 29 Nov - 01 Dec, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow solar wind regime. Solar wind speed was primarily 375-400 km/s. Total IMF strength ranged predominantly from 3 to 4 nT and the Bz component underwent weak deviations. The phi angle was negative.

Forecast: A slow solar wind regime is anticipated to continue through day one and much of day two (29-30 Nov). The solar wind environment is likely to become enhanced and disturbed later on day two due to an approaching CIR ahead of an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS. Day three (01 Dec) is likely to see an increasingly disturbed IMF and elevated solar wind speed due to CIR arrival and subsequent connection with the CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 29-30 Nov. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 01 Dec with the onset of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. There is a slight chance G2 (Moderate) conditions may be reached given the history of this recurrent feature.

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