[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jan 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jan 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2732 (N09W39, Dro/beta) continued to exhibit minor growth, mainly in the leader spots, and produced a couple of small B level x-ray enhancements. A CME was observed in C2 coronagraph imagery, emerging around 2324 UTC on 02 Jan. The likely source region is from a filament eruption (S71W49) that occurred around 1930 UTC on 02 Jan. Further analysis and consideration will occur as more imagery becomes available. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 03-05 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels 03-05 Jan.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions throughout the period. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector, with isolated oscillations into the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at nominal levels on 03 Jan. A CIR/SSBC is anticipated late on 04 Jan/early on 05 Jan, ahead of the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Enhanced conditions are expected to persist for both days.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly quiet conditions on 03 Jan. Active conditions are likely on 04 Jan due to the anticipated arrival of a CIR ahead of a (-)CH HSS. By 05 Jan, G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely as the CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.

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