[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2019 Jan 21 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 Jan 21 0128 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 - 20 January 2019

Solar activity was at very low levels under a spotless disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 14-15 Jan and normal levels on 16-20 Jan. A peak flux of 321 pfu was observed at 14/0005 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet levels with isolated unsettled intervals early on 15 Jan, late on 16 Jan, early on 17 Jan and late on 19 Jan. The isolated unsettled periods were due to influence from a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. During the period, solar wind parameters were generally at nominal levels. However, a slight enhancement was observed midday 17 Jan through early 18 Jan due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. During this time frame, total field peaked at 10 nT, the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -8 nT and wind speeds peaked at about 515 km/s.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 January - 16 February 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 21-25 Jan, 28 Jan-01 Feb and 07-16 Feb. Moderate to high levels are expected on 26-27 Jan and again on 02-06 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 23-26 Jan, with G1 (Minor) storms conditions likely on 24 Jan, all due to influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are again possible on 31 Jan-03 Feb due to influence from a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at predominately quiet levels.

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