[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Feb 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Feb 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless. No Earth- directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 22-24 Feb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 22 Feb, and moderate to high levels on 23-24 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated waning influence from a positive CH HSS. Bt ranged from 2-7 nT while Bz reached a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT at 21/1512 UTC. Solar wind speeds were between 430-510 km/s and ended the period around 450 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive, with a rotation into the negative sector observed late in the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to transition back to ambient condition by 23 Feb. Nominal solar wind is expected over 24 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 22-23 Feb, with an isolated active period possible on 22 Feb. Mostly quiet levels are anticipated on 24 Feb nominal solar wind conditions are expected to return.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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