[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Feb 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Feb 28 1230 UTC.

Solar activity remained very low and the visible disk was spotless. A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at approximately 1610 UTC (S41W65). The resulting CME was observed in C2 coronagraph imagery, breaking the occulting disc to the West around 1800 UTC. Analysis, and a subsequent model run have determined this to be a non Earth-directed event. No other CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low from 28 Feb-02 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase and may likely reach moderate levels on 28 Feb and 01 Mar, with a chance for high levels by 01 Mar, due to increasing CH HSS influences. High levels are likely on 02 Mar as CH HSS effects continue. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a CIR ahead of an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Total IMF strength increased to over 10 nT shortly after 27/1230 UTC and reached a maximum value of 12 nT. The Bz component underwent a few periods of short duration, pronounced southward deviations. Solar wind speed also increased after 27/1230, reaching a brief peak of 558 km/s at 28/0621 UTC. The phi angle was predominately in a negative solar sector.

Forecast: CH HSS influences are expected to continue and gradually increase on 28 Feb due, to an improved geoeffective connection. Elevated solar wind speed is likely to continue into 01-02 Mar as CH HSS influences persist.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels.

Forecast: Primarily unsettled to active levels, with a chance of an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming conditions, are expected for 28 Feb due to CH HSS effects. Quiet to active levels are expected on 01-02 Mar as CH HSS influences persist.

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