[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Mar 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Mar 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with no sunspots present on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (02-04 Mar).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 28,200 pfu at 01/2135 UTC, due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high levels all three days (02-04 Mar) as CH HSS effects continue. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to stay at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of influence from an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed averaged near 550 km/s. Total field strength ranged between 1-8 nT while the Bz component varied between +5 nT to -6 nT. Phi angle remained in a predominately negative orientation.

Forecast: An enhanced solar wind environment is expected to continue through day one (02 Mar) as Earth remains connected to an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Additional isolated, negative polarity CH HSSs will keep the solar wind environment slightly enhanced through days two and three (03-04 Mar).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to active levels due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled to active levels on day one (02 Mar) as negative polarity CH HSS influence persists. By days two and three (03-04 Mar), mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected as Earth comes under the additional influence of a pair of isolated, negative polarity CH HSSs.

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