[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 May 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 May 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to an isolated C1 flare, observed at 03/2331 UTC, from new Region 2740 (N09E60, Hhx/alpha). Associated with the C1 flare was a CME observed in LASCO/2 imagery beginning at 03/2336 UTC. The region also produced a B3 flare at 03/1449 UTC. Associated with the B3 flare was a CME observed in LASCO/C2 imagery beginning at 03/1512 UTC. Both CMEs originated near the limb and the ejecta is not expected to be geoeffective.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flaring on 04-06 May due to the potential from Region 2740.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,155 pfu observed at 03/1930 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 04-06 May due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested continued influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed ranged from 360-495 km/s. Total magnetic field strength peaked at 11 nT. The Bz component breifly reached a as far south as -6 nT. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Forecast: A gradual return to ambient solar wind conditions is expected on days one and two (04-05 May). An enhanced solar wind environment is expected on day three (06 May) due to effects from a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated periods of unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 May). Nominal conditions are expected to produce quiet levelso n day two (05 May). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (06 May) due to the anticipated onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.

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