[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2019 May 06 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 May 06 0135 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 April - 05 May 2019

Solar activity was at very low to low levels. New Region 2740 (N08, L=307, class/area Dho/280 on 05 May) produced a pair of C-class flares, the largest a C2/Sf observed at 04/2243 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronograph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 29 Apr - 01 May and reached high levels on 02-05 May. The maximum electron flux was 6,160 pfu observed at 03/1930 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels through the period. Quiet levels were observed on 29-30 Apr under a nominal solar wind regime. Late on 01 May through midday on 02 May, unsettled to active levels were observed under an enhanced solar wind environment due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. During this time frame, wind speeds peaked at near 565 km/s, total field reached 11 nT, while the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -10 nT. On 03-04 May, field conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels as negative polarity CH HSS influence continued. By 05 May, quiet conditions were observed under waning CH HSS influence.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 May - 01 June 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with low levels likely through 20 May due to activity from Region 2740 and the return of old Region 2739 (N06, L=266). Very low conditions are anticipated after 20 May.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 06-12 May, and again on 29 May - 01 Jun, due to CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 13-28 May.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 06-07 May and again on 28-31 May. Both enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to recurrent, negativity polarity CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels.

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