[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 May 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 May 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels. Occasional C-class flares occurred early in the period from Region 2740 (N08E35, Cso/beta). The largest of these flares being an impulsive C7/Sn flare at 06/1354 UTC. Region 2740 also produced a C1/Sf flare near the end of the period at 07/1048 UTC. Region 2741 (N05E73, Hsx/alpha) continued to make its way onto the visible disk, but remained inactive throughout the period.

The NE limb continued to exhibit increased CME activity, as seen in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery. This activity was again associated with Region 2740. Analysis of the CMEs was hindered due to data gaps in the coronagraph imagery, but the majority of the CMEs still appeared to not be Earth-directed. However, from approximately 06/2348-0036 UTC, a faint asymmetrical full halo CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery. Analysis is ongoing to determine arrival time and impacts, if it is determined to be Earth-directed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain low, with C-class flares likely 07-09 May, due primarily to the unstable nature of Region 2740 and the recent development of Region 2741.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels on 07-09 May due to anticipated, weak CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime. Total IMF strength ranged primarily from 4 to 5 nT, while the Bz component ranged from +3/-4 nT. Solar wind speed was mainly between 320-400 km/s and the phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: Weak enhancements in the solar wind environment are likely on 07 May due to an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Conditions are expected to remain slightly enhanced on 08-09 May, but wane as the CH HSS rotates away from a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period likely on 07 May, due to effects associated with weak CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 08-09 May due to continued, but weakening CH HSS effects.

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