[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 May 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 May 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with only B-level enhancements observed during the period. Region 2740 (N08E21, Cso/beta) continued to decay slightly, while Region 2741 (N05E59, Hsx/alpha) remained relatively unchanged and inactive.

A few additional CMEs were observed in LASCO C2 imagery throughout the period, but appeared to have easterly, non-Earth directed trajectories.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a chance for C-class flares, during the forecast period (08-10 May) as Region 2740 continues to exhibit signs of decay, and Region 2741 remains stable.

The asymmetric halo CME first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery at 06/2348 UTC was analyzed further, and appears to have a likely Earth-directed component. Initial indications point to a potential arrival time at Earth near midday on 11 May, just outside this forecast period.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 1,050 pfu at 07/1850 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels again on 08 May, and decrease to moderate levels on 09-10 May due to lack of influential activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained indicative of a slow regime. Total field strength averaged near 3 nT, the Bz component fluctuated between +2/-4 nT, and solar wind speed decreased to near 325 km/s. The phi angle remained in a negative orientation.

Forecast: The anticipated influences from an isolated negative polarity CH HSS are still possible, but less likely, on 08 May as the coronal hole moves out of a geoeffective position. Ambient, background conditions are likely to return on 09-10 May as any CH HSS influences wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for an isolated active period, on 08 May in response to possible CH HSS influences. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected on 09-10 May.

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