[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 May 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 May 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2740 (N08W21, Hax/alpha) and Region 2741 (N06E17, Hsx/alpha) were both relatively stable and inactive. A B2.2 flare was observed from Region 2741 at 10/1734 UTC and a B2.2 flare from Region 2740 was observed at 10/1824 UTC.

A DSF centered near N11W16, approximately 7 degrees in length, was observed erupting beginning around 10/1900 UTC. A second DSF near N15E01, approximately 13 degrees in length, was observed erupting beginning around 11/0000 UTC. The first DSF produced a CME signature first observed in STEREO-A COR2 at 10/1854 UTC and the second DSF produced a CME first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 11/0312 UTC. The events are currently being analyzed and modeled.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 11-13 May, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 11-13 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue unchanged at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected an enhanced environment from a slow-moving transient feature. The onset of the transient was observed after 10/1655 UTC, when wind speeds, density and total field increased from nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 12 nT at 11/0123 UTC. The Bz component had several periods of sustained southward Bz, reaching a maximum southward deflection of -11 nT at 11/0659 UTC. Solar wind speeds peaked at 390 km/s at 10/1729 UTC but remained between 340-360 km/s for most of the period.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to reflect continued transient influence on days one and two (11-12 May). Day three (13 May) is likely to return to near background solar wind conditions.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels due to transient effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active, with isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels possible, on 11 May and quiet to active levels on 12 May due to persistent transient influence. A return to mostly quiet conditions is expected on 13 May.

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