[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 May 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 May 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to an isolated C2/Sn flare at 15/1924 UTC from Region 2741 (N06W51, Hsx/alpha). Aside from the C2 flare, this region only produced a few B-level enhancements and was otherwise relatively inactive. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 16-18 May.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 1,250 pfu at 15/1905 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to range from normal to high levels on 16-18 May in response to CME effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced as transient influences persisted. Total field strength ranged from 3 to 10 nT, the Bz component fluctuated between +9/-5 nT, and solar wind speed was steady between 400-450 km/s. The Phi angle remained mostly positive, with a few oscillations into the negative sector.

Forecast: The CME that departed the Sun on 12 May is anticipated to arrive at Earth on 16 May, causing enhancements in the solar wind environment. The CME that ejected on 13 May is expected to arrive early on 17 May, possibly enhancing the solar wind environment further. By mid to late day on 18 May, CME effects should begin to taper off and the solar wind environment is expected to return to a more background state.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected, with isolated G1 (Minor) and G2 (Moderate) storm levels likely, on 16 May due to the anticipated arrival of the 12 May CME. The projected arrival of the 13 May CME early on 17 May is likely to result in isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storm conditions as well, with conditions returning to quiet to unsettled levels on 18 May as CME effects decrease.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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