[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2019 May 20 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2019 May 20 0537 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 May 2019

Solar activity was at very low to low levels, with low-level activity observed on 15 May due to a C2.0/SN flare from Region 2741 (N05 L=272, class/area Hsx/160 on 15 May). Very low-level activity was observed for the remainder of the period. Two eruptions were observed in coronagraph imagery, but were directed east and determined to not be geoeffective.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 13, 15, and 16 May. Normal to moderate levels were observed for the remaining days in the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G3 (Major) storm levels on 14 May due to effects from a CME that erupted on 11 May. G3 storm conditions were observed during the 14/0600-0900 UTC synoptic period, with G2 stom conditions occurring in the 14/0300-0600 UTC period. Active conditions occurred in the 14/0900-1200 and 14/1800-2100 UTC periods. Solar wind parameters at the DSCOVR spacecraft were enhanced with Bt reaching as high as 15 nT accompanied by prolonged periods of southward Bz. Solar wind speed reached a maximum of 568 km/s. Unsettled conditions were observed on 16-17 May. Quiet conditions were observed for the remainder of the summary period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 May - 15 June 2019

Solar activity is expected to be very low levels throughout the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 21-24 May and 29 May - 02 June due to coronal hole high speed stream effects. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active levels on 29 May due to recurrent coronal hole activity. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the remainder of the period.

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