[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jul 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jul 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low and no sunspots were present on the visible disk. No CMEs were observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery through 3/0800 UTC.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low 03-05 Jul due to lack of active regions.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels on 03-04 Jul and increase, reaching moderate levels, on 05 Jul due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: For most of the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed remained near 300-235 km/s, Bt remained at or below 6 nT, and Bz ranged from -5 to +4. In the last hours before forecast time, wind speed rose to approach 400 km/s. Phi was mostly positive.

Forecast: For days 1 and 2 (03-04 Jul), ambient solar wind conditions are expected. Late on day 2 into early day 3 (05 July) a CIR followed by a high speed solar wind stream is anticipated to become geoeffective. Wind speed is expected to reach about 550 km/s - based on STEREO-A PLASTIC observations from back on 27-28 Jun.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Days 1 and 2 (03-04 July) are expected to begin with quiet conditions. Unsettled periods becoming more likely by the end of day 2 as the CIR and high speed stream approaches. By day 3 (05 July), this feature is expected to bring unsettled to active conditions with a chance for a minor storm (G1) period.

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