[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jul 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jul 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 05-07 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal levels on 05 Jul and increase to moderate levels on 06-07 Jul due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels through 04/1745 UTC when a brief change in phi from a positive to a negative sector was observed. Associated with this change was an increase in density coupled with a weak discontinuity in Bt and Bz. Phi angle rotated back to a positive sector at 04/1822 UTC, then returned to the negative sector at 04/2038 UTC, where it remained through the end of the period. Over the period, solar wind speed increased just above 400 km/s, total field ranged from 3-7 nT and the Bz component varied between +7 to -4 nT.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are anticipated to become further enhanced due to the onset of a negative polarity, CH HSS. Elevated conditions are expected to wane over the course of 06 Jul, and return to ambient-like conditions by 07 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels by late 05 Jul, as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position. Unsettled conditions are expected to continue through 06 Jul before decreasing to mostly quiet levels by 07 Jul.

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