[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jul 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jul 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. B-flare activity occurred from new Region 2744 (S27E43, Axx/Alpha), the largest a B3 flare observed at 06/2121 UTC. This new region does appear to have a reverse polarity magnetic configuration. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 07-09 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels on 07-09 Jul.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained at nominal levels over the period. Solar wind speed averaged about 350 km/s, total field ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component varied between +/2 to -4 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a negative solar sector for the first half of the period. A SSBC from a negative to positive sector occurred at 07/0051 UTC and remained predominately positive for the remainder of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced by mid to late on 09 Jul as a positive polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 07-08 Jul. By 09 Jul, conditions are expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.

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