[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jul 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jul 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and no sunspots were present on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 09-11 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels on 09 Jul, increasing to moderate levels on 10-11 Jul due to enhanced wind speeds from a CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels on 09-11 Jul.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the arrival of a likely transient, coupled with CIR influences and followed by weak CH HSS onset. Solar wind parameters were initially at nominal levels with solar wind speed at about 300 km/s and total field strength primarily from 3 to 5 nT. The Bz component was weakly northward and the phi angle was indicative of a negative sector. At 08/1830 UTC, an apparent transient arrival was observed in real-time solar wind observations as indicated by impulsive increases in solar wind speed and total IMF strength.

During the reporting period, solar wind speed increased to end of period speed near 450 km/s. The Bt increased to 10 nT simultaneously with the impulsive speed increase at 08/1830 UTC and peaked at 22nT at 08/2215 UTC; while Bz reached maximum southward deflections to -10 nT on a few occasions between 09/0045-0217 UTC. The phi angle oscillated between positive and negative sectors after 08/2035 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 09 Jul due to influences of a positive polarity CH HSS. Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to persist through 11 Jul.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, due to effects from the likely transient arrival and passage, coupled with CIR arrival.

Forecast: On 09 Jul, conditions are expected to remain quiet to unsettled, with a likely period of active conditions due to lingering, but waning CME effects, combined with the effects of a positive polarity CH HSS. Conditions are forecast to persist at up to active levels through the forecast period.

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