[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Jul 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Jul 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No sunspots were present on the visible disk and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 13-15 Jul.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 6,599 pfu observed at 12/1945 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the forecast period (13-15 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced, but in slow decline over the period. Solar wind speeds decreased from approximately 475 km/s to near 440 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-7 nT while the Bz component varied weakly from +/-4 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced by midday on 15 Jul as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position. Solar wind speeds in the 450-550 km/s range are expected based on STEREO A solar wind data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 13-14 Jul. By midday on 15 Jul, a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to active conditions.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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