[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Sep 28 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Sep 28 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No spots were observed on the visible disk and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 28-30 Sep.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 28 Sep and high to very high levels on 29-30 Sep due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, suggested the transition from a CIR into a high speed stream. Total magnetic field strength reached a peak of 15 nT at 27/1327 UTC and decreased to 3-7 nT as it transitioned into the high speed stream proper after 27/2003 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased to around 600 km/s with the CIR and further increased to just above 700 km/s with the high speed stream. Speeds maintained between 600-700 km/s through the end of the reporting period. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at enhanced levels as the positive polarity CH HSS persists over 28-29 Sep. Speeds are expected to decline on 30 Sep as influence from the coronal hole wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor), with isolated G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 28 Sep. G1 (Minor) levels are likely to continue as coronal hole effects are expected to persist over 29 Sep. Quiet to active conditions are likely by 30 Sep as influence from coronal hole is expected to wane.

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