[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Sep 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Sep 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No spots were observed on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on 30 Sep - 02 Oct.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 49,300 pfu on 29/2035 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be high to very high levels on 30 Sep - 02 Oct due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected waning influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds decreased from around 550 km/s to near 475 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Total magnetic field strength was between 3-7 nT while the Bz component was mostly negative, reaching a maximum southward value of -6 nT at 30/0559 UTC. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to slowly decrease towards nominal conditions over 30 Sep - 01 Oct. Nominal conditions are expected on 02 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 30 Sep decrease to unsettled levels on 01 Oct due to waning influence from a coronal hole. Quiet levels are expected to return on 02 Oct.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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