[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Oct 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Oct 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. An area of enhanced plage rotated onto the visible disk near the southeast limb. This area will be monitored and numbered if conditions warrant. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 01-03 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a maximum flux of 9,160 pfu at 30/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high to very high levels 01-03 Oct due to continuing effects associated with the positive polarity CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of persistent, but waning positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field strength averaged near 6 nT, the Bz component fluctuated between +/- 6 nT, and the wind speed averaged near 480 km/s. The phi angle was positive with brief, isolated oscillations into the negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect a gradual return to near background conditions on 01-02 Oct. On 03 Oct, weak enhancements are expected as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with a couple of active periods, likely associated with prolonged instances of southward Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled on 01-02 Oct, with a chance for an isolated active period on 01 Oct, due to waning positive polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to active conditions are anticipated on 03 Oct in response to influences of an anticipated negative polarity CH HSS.

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