[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2019 Oct 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2019 Oct 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels on 24-26 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 24-25 Oct as a positive polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. By 26 Oct, electron flux levels are likely to increase to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained at background levels until near 24/0900 UTC, when a CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS caused enhanced conditions. Solar wind speeds increased to near 500 km/s. Total field increased from background values up to 14 nT while the Bz component became predominantly southward after 24/0900 UTC and reached a maximum southward value of -12 nT. Phi remained mostly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 24 Oct due to CIR/CH HSS influences. CH HSS effects are projected to last through 25 Oct before beginning to subside on 26 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with an isolated active period due to influences from the aforementioned CIR.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly unsettled to active levels, with isolated G1 (minor) storm periods likely for the remainder of 24 Oct. The G1 storm conditions are likely to continue on 25 Oct as CH HSS influence persists. By 26 Oct, conditions should begin to weaken as the CH begins its transit out of a geoeffective position.

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