[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Jan 10 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Jan 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2756 (N22W70, Axx/alpha) continued to decay over the period. Coronal dimming was observed near S02E44 beginning at 10/0526 UTC in SDO/AIA 171 imagery. Further analysis will be conducted as coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 10-12 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: Both the greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux were below event thresholds throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels during the forecast period (10-12 Jan).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field ranged from 2-7 nT while the Bz component was between +5/-6 nT. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 440 km/s to near 570 km/s through 10/0350 UTC before slowly declining to 500 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a negative (towards) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at elevated levels on 10 Jan as the influence from the negative polarity CH HSS persists. A return to mostly background conditions is likely on 11-12 Jan as influence from the CH HSS diminishes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 10 Jan due to continued effects of a negative polarity CH HSS. A return to quiet levels is expected for 11-12 Jan as nominal solar wind conditions return.

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