[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Jan 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Jan 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 14-16 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: Both the greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux were below event thresholds throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 14-16 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels over the next three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Solar wind speed was between 350 - 400 km/s early in the period, then settled below 350 km/s by the end of the day. Total field was less than 5 nT, and Bz underwent no significant southward deviations. Phi angle was oriented in a negative solar sector until about 1400 UTC, then flipped to a positive orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced on 14 Jan with the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Enhancements are expected to continue through 16 Jan.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach unsettled to active levels on 14 Jan due to the anticipated onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Active conditions are likely again on 15 Jan under continued influence from the CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 16 Jan.

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