[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Jan 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Jan 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk remained spotless. An area of enhanced plage emerged on the disk near N17E37. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 19-21 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below alert threshold values and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 19-20 Jan. High levels are likely on 21 Jan due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed varying between between 310-350 km/s. A slight enhancement to about 365 km/s was observed after 19/0713 UTC. Total field ranged from 1-4 nT while the Bz component varied between +3/-4 nT. Phi angle was variable throughout the period between positive and negative sectors.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to become weakly enhanced on 19 Jan due to the arrival of the 14 Jan CME. A further enhancement is expected on 20-21 Jan with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Midday to late on 19 Jan, unsettled conditions are likely due to the arrival of the 14 Jan CME. By 20 Jan, unsettled to active levels are expected with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to persist through 21 Jan.

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