[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Jan 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Jan 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. An area of enhanced plage, located near N22E30, showed signs of possible pore development but was not numbered during the period. At 19/1835 UTC, a B1/Sf flare was observed near the area of enhanced plage. Associated with this flare, coronal dimming was observed in SDO/AIA 195 imagery. Analysis of any potential CME will be conducted as coronagraph imagery becomes available.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 20-22 Jan.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below alert threshold values and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 20 Jan. Moderate to high levels are likely on 21-22 Jan due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with a steady, gradual decrease in wind speeds through the period from about 340 km/s to near 300 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-4 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-2 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a negative sector with periodic positive sector oscillations.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to become enhanced on 20-21 Jan due to negative polarity CH HSS onset. A gradual return to a more nominal solar wind environment is expected on 22 Jan as CH HSS effects diminish.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels, with a chance for isolated active conditions, as onset of a negative polarity CH HSS is expected midday on 20 Jan. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to persist through 21 Jan. By 22 Jan, quiet to unsettled levels are expected to continue as CH HSS influence begins to taper off.

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