[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2020 Feb 10 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2020 Feb 10 0203 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 - 09 February 2020

Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was between normal to high levels. High levels were reached on 08-09 Feb in response to a negative polarity CH HSS. Normal to moderate levels were observed for the remainder of the summary period.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active levels were observed on 06-07 Feb in response to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS, with wind speeds reaching a max near 650 km/s on 07 Feb. As wind speeds declined, unsettled conditions were observed on 08-09 Feb. Another isolated period of unsettled was observed on 04 Feb in response to sustained southward Bz. The remainder of the summary period was quiet.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 February - 07 March 2020

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels over 10-14 Feb and 06-07 Mar in response to multiple CH HSSs. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 04 Mar in response to influence form a recurrent extension of the southern polar crown coronal hole. Active levels are likely on 11 Feb, 17 Feb, 26 Feb and 05 Mar; unsettled conditions are likely 12 Feb, 14 Feb, 18 Feb, 25 Feb and 27 Feb. These geomagnetic disturbances are anticipated from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels.

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