[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Feb 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Feb 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low and the visible disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected to continue 20-22 Feb due to an absence of sunspots and no active regions of note.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 20 Feb and increase to moderate to high levels on 21-22 Feb due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength decreased and ended the period at 3 to 5 nT. The Bz component underwent weak deviations. Solar wind speed decreased from from near 475 km/s to primarily 400-425 km/s. The phi angle was negative.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue weakening and become less disturbed as CH HSS influences wane further on 20-21 Feb, and the solar wind state returns to an ambient, background regime on 22 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for an isolated active period the remainder of 20 Feb due to minor and waning CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 21 Feb and a return to quiet conditions is anticipated for 22 Feb.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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