[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Feb 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Feb 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels with a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 29 Feb and 01-02 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate to high levels with a maximum flux of 1,195 pfu observed at 28/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected reach moderate to high levels on 29 Feb and 01-02 Mar due to HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The near-earth solar wind environment became slightly enhanced this period due to solar sector variability. Solar wind speed values reached slowly increased from initial values around 350 km/s to a peak of 500 km/s at around 29/0300 UTC. Solar wind density remained slightly elevated throughout the period, but remained below 10 particles per cubic cm. Late in the period, at around 29/1100 UTC, IMF total field strength values increased to around 9 nT and Bz increased to around -7 nT.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected 29 Feb through 02 Mar as an equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 29 Mar with unsettled to isolated active levels likely on 01-02 Mar. This increase in activity is due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.

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