[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Apr 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Apr 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 20-22 Apr.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 20-22 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels through about 20/0130 UTC. Solar wind speed ranged from 284-330 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-3 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-3 nT. Phi was oriented in a negative solar sector through about 19/2120 UTC when it rotated to a positive orientation.

At 20/0130 UTC, solar wind parameters increased across all readings suggesting passage of a transient, possibly associated with a slow-moving CME observed on 15 Apr. Wind speeds increased to about 390 km/s, total field peaked at 15 nT and the Bz component reached -15 nT. Phi angle was variable.

Forecast: Continued enhancement in solar wind parameters is expected for the remainder of 20 Apr and extending through 21 Apr. A negative polarity, southern crown CH extension is expected to move into a geoeffective position midday on the 20th keeping the solar wind environment enhanced. Solar wind speed is expected to be mostly in the 400-500 km/s ranged based on recurrent values. By late on 22 Apr, a weak enhancement to solar wind parameters is expected as a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (minor) storm levels due to CME enhancement.

Forecast: Continued unsettled to G1 (minor) storm levels, is expected for the remainder of 20 Apr due to CME effects coupled with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled levels are expected on 21 Apr as HSS effects persist. By late on 22 Apr, a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing quiet to unsettled conditions.

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