[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 May 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 May 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels 19-21 May.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 19-21 May and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a mostly background solar wind regime, with a slight enhancement observed near the turn of the UT day. Wind speeds increased from 300 km/s to just over 380 km/s. Total field strength began the period around 2 nT, saw a peak near 9 nT, and ended the period near 6 nT. The Bz component ranged from +/- 6 nT. Phi was predominantly in a positive solar sector until approx 18/2000 UTC when it moved into a negtive sector, then returned to a positive orientation just after 19/0900 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on 19 May due to possible CH influence, as well as the proximity to the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), and persist through 20 May. A return to a mostly nominal solar wind regime is anticipated for 21 May.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels 19-20 May due to possible CH influence, as well as the proximity to the HCS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 21 May as CH HSS/HCS effects wane.

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