[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Oct 06 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Oct 06 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and the visible disk was spotless. A slow moving CME from the NW limb was first clearly seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at about 06/0700 UTC. Initial indications are that this CME may be associated with some coronal dimming centered near N40W30. Analysis will continue as additional coronagraph imagery becomes available to determine if there may be any Earth-directed component.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low 06-08 Oct.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 42,700 pfu at 05/1235 UTC and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels 06-08 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of an enhanced IMF and slow solar wind regime. Total IMF strength increased to 10-11 nT and the Bz component reached a maximum deflection of -9 nT between 05/1830-1930 UTC and underwent weak deviations afterwards. Solar wind speed decreased from a maximum of about 380 km/s to near 325 km/s by the periods end. The phi angle was variable until after 5/1800 UTC, when it became predominantly positive.

Forecast: A slow solar wind regime is anticipated to continue 06-08 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active in response to the enhanced IMF.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled the remainder of 06 Oct and become mostly quiet 07-08 Oct.

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