[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2020 Oct 12 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2020 Oct 12 0040 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 October 2020

Solar activity was very low. Regions 2774 (S25, L=308, class/area Axx/010 on 09 Oct) and 2775 (S24, L=272, class/area Cro/050 on 10 Oct) were absent of significant flare activity and unremarkable throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 05, 07, and 10 Oct with a peak flux of 3,236 pfu on 07/1535 UTC. Moderate flux levels were observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached isolated active levels on 05 and 06 Oct due to a slightly enhanced interplanetary magnetic field. Quiet conditions were observed on 07-11 Oct under a background solar wind regime.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 October - 07 November 2020

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 21-31 Oct and 01, 03, 06 Nov. Normal to moderate levels are expected during the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 25 Oct, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms likely on 21-24 Oct, due to recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS influence. Active conditions are expected on 20, 26-28 Oct. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

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