[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Oct 29 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Oct 29 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2778 (S18W51, Dao/beta-gamma) exhibited decay in the intermediate spots and only produced low-level enhancements. Region 2779 (S18W40, Cai/beta) emerged during the period and produced two C1 flares at 28/1943 and 28/2054 UTC, a C4 flare at 29/1150 UTC, and multiple B-level enhancements. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period. Forecast: Solar activity for 29-31 Oct is expected to be at very low levels, with C-flares likely and a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 21,571 pfu observed at 28/1510 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 29-31 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect the influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds averaged near 500 km/s until ~29/0600 UTC when they began to slowly decrease. Total field strength varied between 2-6 nT, and the Bz component varied between +/- 5 nT. Phi was variable throughout the period, with a prolonged excursion in the positive sector from 28/1900-29/0645 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced under positive polarity CH HSS influence through the remainder of 29 Oct. A return to nominal conditions is expected on 30-31 Oct.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period, due to the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for an isolated active period on 29 Oct, and mostly quiet on 30-31 Oct as CH HSS influences wane over the forecast period.

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