[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2020 Nov 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2020 Nov 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels today with a long duration M4 flare observed at 29/1311 UTC. This flare originated from a region just beyond the SE limb. Associated with this event was a Type II (765 km/s) radio sweep, a 240 sfu Tenflare, and a CME off the east limb first observed at 29/1325 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery (estimated velocity 1393 km/s). An EIT wave could be seen in SUVI 195 imagery beginning at 29/1355 UTC and a faint, asymmetric halo shock could be seen in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 29/1418 UTC.

Modelling of the CME indicated a miss, however the model didnt encapsulate the full extent of the shock and the possibility remains for a potential shock enhancement/glancing blow on 01-02 Dec.

No significant changes were noted in the spotted regions on the visible disk. No additional CMEs were observed during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for further M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3 Strong or greater) on 30 Nov-02 Dec.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today with a peak flux of 1,660 pfu observed at 29/1410 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels, although a small bump was observed at the 10 MeV energy level after 30/0800 UTC.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 30 Nov-02 Dec. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-minor) due to the potential for further significant flare activity from an unnumbered region rotating around the SE limb.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels through about 30/0700 UTC when parameters became enhanced. Solar wind speeds increased from about 425 km/s to about 525 km/s, total field briefly increased to 12 nT and the Bz component was mostly southward to -10 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominately positive sector throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on 30 Dec. A shock enhancement/glancing blow from the 29 Nov CME is possible on 01-02 Dec causing an initial enhancement to solar wind speed, however the main body of the ejecta was not Earth-directed.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 30 Dec. Unsettled to active periods are possible on 01-02 Dec with the possible arrival of the aforementioned shock enhancement/glancing blow from the 29 Nov CME.

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