[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Jan 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Jan 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2797 (S17E67, Cao/beta) continues to rotate into better view and continues to be stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a slight chance for a C-class flare, on 19-21 Jan.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 19-20 Jan. Moderate to high levels are expected by 21 Jan due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The IMF was mildly disturbed from what could be a negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength peaked at 8 nT and Bz underwent minor southward deviations with the initial onset. Winds have been slow to increase but have increased nonetheless to around 330 km/s. Phi was negative.

Forecast: Intermittent enhancements are expected through 21 Jan with CH HSS activity.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with the exception of one unsettled period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with isolated unsettled and active periods through 21 Jan due to CH HSS influence.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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