[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Feb 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Feb 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. New Region 2801 (N31W37, Bxo/beta) was numbered today. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected to continue on 02-04 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,920 pfu at 01/1655 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels 02-04 Feb due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 330 km/s to near 550 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-20 nT while the Bz component was between +19/-16 nT. Phi angle switched from a positive sector to negative at approximately 01/2304 UTC.

Forecast: Elevated solar wind speed is expected to continue through 03 Feb as HSS influence persists. Speeds are likely to decrease on 04 Feb as the CH HSS slowly wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to the onset of CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 02-03 Feb with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming likely on 02 Feb. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 04 Feb as HSS conditions diminish.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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