[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Feb 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Feb 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2801 (N30W66) decayed to plage. The slow moving CME off the NW limb from 03 Feb was analyzed and determined to not have a geoeffective component.

Forecast: Very low solar activity is expected on 04-06 Feb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed ranged from 470-563 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-10 nT while the Bz component was between +7/-8 nT. Phi angle was mostly negative.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is expected to decrease further on 04 Feb as HSS influences wane, and a return to a more ambient regime is expected on 05-06 Feb. By late on 06 Feb, a possible solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) may cause some perturbation in solar wind parameters.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active in response to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the rest of the UTC day on 04 Feb as HSS effects slowly wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 05 Feb through most of 06 Feb. Late on 06 Feb, an anticipated SSBC may cause unsettled levels.

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