[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Feb 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Feb 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2802 (N18W47, Axx/alpha) was quiet and stable. New Region 2803 (N21E69, Hrx/alpha) produced a few B-class events this period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 19-21 Feb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 21 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were reflective of nominal conditions. Solar wind speeds meandered between ~325-375 km/s. Total field strength was at or below 6 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-5 nT. Phi was in a negative orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal levels through 20 Feb. A recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause enhancements on 21 Feb.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast Mostly quiet conditions are expected through 20 Feb under a nominal solar wind environment. G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 21 Feb as a recurrent, CH HSS (negative polarity) is expected to become geoeffective.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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