[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Feb 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Feb 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2803 (N20, L=277) decayed to plage. New Region 2804 (N20E02, Bxo/Beta) quietly emerged on the disk this period. No new Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

A filament eruption was observed near mid-day on 20 Feb in the SE quadrant. A subsequent partial-halo CME signature followed the eruption, first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 20/1200 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested the bulk of the plasma headed downstream of Earth; however, a glancing blow from the periphery of the CME is likely on 23-24 Feb.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 22-24 Feb.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 6,702 pfu observed at 21/1505 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 22-24 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained enhanced due to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds averaged about 575 km/s with several peaks near 620 km/s. Total field generally ranged from 4-6 nT while the Bz component varied between +4 nT to -6 nT. The phi angle remained in a predominately negative solar sector.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced through 24 Feb. CH HSS influences are expected persist, though gradually wane, through 22 Feb. Conditions are expected to become more enhanced on 23-24 Feb due to the possible arrival of the 20 Feb CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to CH HSS influences.

Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active intervals, on 22 Feb as CH HSS influences persist. Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions, are likely on 23-24 Feb, all due to potential effects from the 20 Feb CME.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

- - - - - - - - - - - - - Be sure to subscribe to our space weather and propagation email group, on Groups.io https://groups.io/g/propagation-and-space-weather Spread the word! - - - - - - - - - - - - - Links of interest: + Amazon space weather books: http://g.nw7us.us/fbssw-aSWSC + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx Space Weather and Ham Radio YouTube Channel News: I am working on launching a YouTube channel overhaul, that includes series of videos about space weather, radio signal propagation, and more. Additionally, I am working on improving the educational efforts via the email, Facebook, YouTube, Tumblr, and other activities. You can help! Please consider becoming a Patron of these space weather and radio communications services, beginning with the YouTube channel: https://www.patreon.com/NW7US The YouTube channel: https://YouTube.com/NW7US ..

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation