[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk contained no numbered active regions. A new region of emerging flux was noted in the SE quadrant. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 01-03 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 01 Mar and increase to normal to high levels on 02-03 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar winds, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested the onset of a CIR. Total magnetic field began to increase after 28/2100 UTC, reaching a maximum of 14 nT at 01/0308UTC. The Bz component underwent a significant period of sustained southward orientation between 01/0000-0530 UTC, reaching as far south as -13 nT at 01/0308 UTC. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from ~350 km/s to a maximum of 538 km/s at ~01/0900 UTC. Phi angle transitioned from predominantly positive to variable after 28/2100 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to undergo slowly waning enhancements from influence of a negative polarity CH HSS over 01-03 Mar.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field increased from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels, observed during the 01/0300-0600 synoptic period, in response to sustained periods of southward Bz is what looks to be a CIR ahead of a CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 01 Mar due to interaction with a CIR. G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely on 02 Mar as the CH HSS persists and active conditions are likely on 03 as the influence from the CH HSS diminishes.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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