[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2806 decayed to plage as it neared the west limb. Region 2807 (S18W43, Axx/alpha) reemerged, but was inactive. A new spot rotated into view and was assigned as Region 2808 (N19E74, Hsx/alpha), but was also inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels over 09-11 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak of 1,625 pfu due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels through 10 Mar. A return to moderate levels is expected by 11 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels 09-11 Mar.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the waning influences of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength averaged mainly 3-4 nT, while the Bz component underwent mostly weak deviations. Solar wind speed unsteadily decreased from a peak of 543 km/s to end of period values that ranged primarily 450-500 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive solar sector.

Forecast: The solar wind parameters are expected to gradually trend towards nominal levels over 09-10 Mar. Enhancements in the IMF are anticipated 11 Mar due to an anticipated SSBC.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled under waning CH HSS influences.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 09 Mar in response to diminishing CH HSS effects. Quiet conditions are expected on 10 Mar as nominal solar wind condition prevail. Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated to give way to unsettled periods late on 11 Mar due to SSBC related effects.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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