[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained very low. Three spots were reported in Region 2809 (S22W27 at 0317 UTC, Cso/beta), but it remained quiet. Region 2808 (N19E04, Axx/alpha) remained quiet. Three new spots were reported near S26W10 at 0558 UTC. This region is being monitored and will be numbered if the spots persist. No earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days 1-3 (15-17 Mar), with a slight chance of C-class flares given the regions currently on the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2740 pfu observed at 14/1810 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 15-16 Mar and normal to moderate levels on 17 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind measurements at the DSCOVR spacecraft reflected waning CH HSS influence. The total field declined from 6 to 3 nT by the end of the period and Bz was primarily southward throughout the past 24 hours but never less than -5 nT. Wind speed also declined from around 550 km/s to 450 km/s near the end of the period.

Forecast: A return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected by day 2 (16 Mar) as CH HSS influence slowly wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field began at unsettled to active levels but ended the period at quiet levels under the stable solar wind influence.

Forecast: Geomagnetic field conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled, with periods of isolated active levels, on 15 Mar as CH HSS influence slowly wanes. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 16-17 Mar under a nominal solar wind regime.

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