[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2808 (N19W13, Axx/alpha) underwent some decay and was inactive, while Region 2809 (S22W47) decayed to plage. A new spot group rotated onto the visible disk just inside the NE limb, and was assigned as NOAA/SWPC Region 2810 (N18E70, Axx/alpha). The region was severely foreshortened and a detailed analysis is not possible as of this report, however, it has been inactive. No earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low 16-18 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,390 pfu observed at 15/1535 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 16-18 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was indicative of an ambient solar wind field, with mildly enhanced solar wind speed still observed from waning CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength was mainly 3-4 nT and the Bz component underwent only weak deviations. Solar wind speed decreased from speeds near 500 km/s to less than 400 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative.

Forecast: Nominal solar wind conditions are anticipated for 16-17 Mar. Enhanced solar wind parameters are likely 18 Mar due to CIR influence ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 16-17 Mar under a nominal solar wind regime. Quiet to unsettled levels are anticipated 18 Mar due to CIR effects ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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