[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2021 Mar 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2021 Mar 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2811 (N21E51, Bxo/beta) produced a few B-class flare events this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. Additional enhancements and a new area of plage were observed crossing the east limb at about N17.

Two CMEs, one off the SE and the other off the NW, were observed in LASCO C2 imagery at around 22/0324 UTC. The CME off the SE is directed off the Sun-Earth line, however, event analysis is underway for the NW CME in order to determine if there is an Earth-directed component. Source regions for both CMEs are unknown due to a lack of solar imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flare activity, over 22-24 Mar.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,033 pfu observed at 21/1430 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 22-24 Mar and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters remained enhanced under continued negative polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds were between 550-650 km/s throughout the period. Total field strength varied between 2-8 nT and Bz was southward at around -4/-7 nT between 21/1200-1800 UTC. The phi angle was predominately negative.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over 22-24 Mar due to continued CH HSS influence (on 22-23 Mar) and the anticipated arrival of the 20 Mar CME (on 23-24 Mar).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influence.

Forecast: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 22 Mar due to continued CH HSS influence. Active conditions are expected on 23-24 Mar due to waning CH HSS influence and the anticipated arrival of the 20 Mar CME.

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